Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 2.408666 2.884985 3.418798 4.059587 4.806015 5.646093 6.661144
2025-12-07 1.622509 2.194827 2.906498 3.849392 5.057797 6.545687 8.506375
2025-12-14 1.214707 1.819054 2.637835 3.812723 5.436738 7.580907 10.599845
2025-12-21 0.951751 1.557422 2.440962 3.797478 5.794577 8.586781 12.734685
2025-12-28 0.823428 1.453606 2.432286 4.022140 6.487454 10.098560 15.699238
2026-01-04 0.701016 1.328573 2.361457 4.128440 7.000211 11.385743 18.452630
2026-01-11 0.616866 1.247326 2.340950 4.300418 7.620160 12.878374 21.637757
2026-01-18 0.522952 1.127822 2.232877 4.304300 7.957558 13.950086 24.253158
2026-01-25 0.427110 0.983550 2.054700 4.155177 8.009738 14.553046 26.154315
2026-02-01 0.349368 0.858082 1.888559 3.999098 8.021862 15.076184 27.950529
2026-02-08 0.300851 0.783760 1.808220 3.989999 8.291336 16.053712 30.584517
2026-02-15 0.261832 0.722072 1.742675 3.998434 8.589432 17.100096 33.412637
2026-02-22 0.223554 0.654695 1.656167 3.956579 8.794401 18.012349 36.110282
2026-03-01 0.180875 0.565887 1.506603 3.759251 8.665781 18.291662 37.676749
2026-03-08 0.155324 0.515736 1.437008 3.725783 8.866803 19.212579 40.511059
2026-03-15 0.134700 0.473978 1.379950 3.711584 9.104613 20.221936 43.587985
2026-03-22 0.127863 0.471235 1.420404 3.931935 9.875499 22.358895 49.019926
2026-03-29 0.116497 0.451648 1.413561 4.036171 10.396809 24.025448 53.632609
2026-04-05 0.108794 0.441964 1.431699 4.204730 11.081247 26.082452 59.173535
2026-04-12 0.096093 0.411955 1.387969 4.208541 11.380577 27.345641 63.170832
2026-04-19 0.080527 0.367063 1.292755 4.062403 11.304446 27.790088 65.488573
2026-04-26 0.067184 0.325980 1.200470 3.909458 11.192338 28.141670 67.627478
2026-05-03 0.059271 0.303616 1.161832 3.900543 11.438945 29.313696 71.611397